Will Shutdown Screw Up Next Month’s Jobs Report Too?

The federal government shutdown already shelved a key piece of economic data: Friday’s jobs report. A prolonged government closure could cause more damage to other data — more than simply delaying reports.

A shutdown lasting several weeks could create headaches in compiling the next jobs report, scheduled for release on November 1, said Keith Hall, a former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Government analysts are due to start the next survey of households in mid-October, asking people across the U.S. about their employment status during the week of the 12th.

If federal employees are out much past October 15, the survey would be conducted later than normal, said Mr. Hall, a senior research fellow at George Mason University. That could delay the report and skew the data.

“If you’re asking about two or three weeks ago, will people accurately remember which week they applied for a job or had an interview?” he asked. “That answer is really important to determining who is categorized as unemployed.”

The household survey determines the month’s unemployment rate.

Analysts wouldn’t change the week of the month they ask about because doing so would alter seasonal-adjustment factors, Mr. Hall said.

The consumer price index report also could be affected by a lengthy shutdown. That report, due out on October 16, depends on government personnel to check prices at thousands of retail locations.

“You can’t walk into a store and ask, ‘What did this cost a few weeks ago?’” Mr. Hall said.

The CPI report, as a measure of inflation, uses one month’s data to build the next report. If a month’s data is skipped or delayed that could have a ripple effect into subsequent reports, he said.

Even the data that is being published during the shutdown can be tricky to read. The Labor Department’s closely watched initial jobless claims figure doesn’t include furloughed federal workers, who tap a separate pool of funds. The widely reported number only tracks state programs.

Policy makers will have to wait longer to see specifics on federal employees. That data, like figures on veterans and those on special crisis-era programs, is reported with a one-week lag.