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Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Number of the Week: Here’s What Jobs Report Would Have Said


156,000 : The number of jobs added in September after a merger of several private sources of laboratory market data.

As the National Zoo Panda Cam , Bureau of Labor Statistics ' job report was a victim of the government - closure .

Missing the BLS report provide other data , mainly from private sources , information about job markets last month . The cumulative result : probably no surprise pop in payrolls or unexpected deterioration in unemployment.

Three sources give estimates on private setting use different ways to achieve their numbers .

Automatic Data Processing reported a gain of 166,000 . Job search engine Bright.com said 164,000 jobs were added . During the Liscio Report has not made any official estimate , equivalent to " the survey a further 150,000 increase in employment in the private sector . "

Trim Tabs Investment Research , said that the entire U.S. economy added 159,000 . Use all four estimates and adjustment for government layoffs , which so far have 5,000 a month on average in 2013 , so total wage and salary , just to have risen 156,000 in September , much less than the 181,000 forecast by economists .

Perception of labor markets , however, offer a positive spin for September, with one big exception .

Consumers clearly perceive career prospects were better beats in September than in August , a trend that has kept the unemployment rate at 7.3% or slightly decreased .

The Conference Board reported that more people thought last month , jobs were " plentiful " and less held jobs " hard to get . " In the latest consumer survey , conducted by the Royal Bank of Canada Stieg employment index to its highest level since October 2007 and the lowest losing the proportion of consumers who fell one point , provide since the start of the survey in 2010.

Company but is more mixed mood .

On the positive side means the decline in unemployment claims, that company will lay off fewer workers . Online help - wanted advertising jumped in September , says the Conference Board . And the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index showed an increase in employment in the factory setting.

However, another ISM data point is the demand for labor is one big exception . The job index for non- manufacturers - Mainly service provider but also the construction and public administration Sectors - what weaker than expected in September. This is disturbing because manufacturers do not employ the lion's share of the U.S. workforce.

It is unclear when the September payroll and payroll report is published. And if politicians do not come to a budget agreement soon , the October payrolls survey could be in trouble.

Important to note is the fact -for the whole market hype and attention it- the first print, the payrolls number is not the last word. The BLS data changes back two months. Then it performs annual and benchmark revisions that can completely change what we thought we knew the labor market .

If the BLS initially reported that only 88,000 jobs created in March , triggered , for example, fears of a slump spring. The number is revised twice now added a respectable 142,000 jobs.

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