It’s a rare first Friday of the month when no payroll report comes out. But if the report had come out, it is likely the September jobless rate would have held at 7.3%, says Gallup.
The polling firm conducts its own survey of jobs and joblessness in the U.S. Its definitions and methods differ from those of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the grand arbiter of labor markets, but at least Gallup released September data.
What the Gallup survey shows is that the employment situation was little changed in September. Its seasonally adjusted jobless rate fell to 7.9% after it popped to 8.6% in August. Gallup says its data suggest “when the report is released, the BLS will likely report no change in the unemployment rate.”
One troubling part of the Gallup data is the persistence of workers who cannot find full-time employment. That trend will limit consumer spending. According to Gallup, 9.4% of part-time workers wanted full-time jobs, up from 8.6% saying that in September 2012. “This suggests the decline in the unemployment rate is actually due to more Americans taking part-time jobs rather than gaining the full-time employment they want,” the report says.
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