A roundup of economic news from around the Web.
–Discouraged Workers: Tim Taylor looks at discouraged workers. “As the unemployment rate has drifted down from its peak of 10% in October 2009 to its current level at 7.3%, a number of commenters have noted that the labor force participation rate has also been falling, from about 66% in late 2007 before the start of the recession to a current level of around 63.2%. Thus, is the drop in the unemployment rate nothing more than a drop in the share of adults seeking to participate in the labor market in the first place? More specifically, what do the statistics tell us about whether those who are outside the labor force are seeking to work?”
–Recoveryless Jobs: Philip Lane notes that Ireland is having the opposite of a jobless recovery. “The concept of a “jobless recovery” is well understood, by which employment growth lags output growth. Today’s ESRI QEC argues that the opposite pattern is currently evident in the Irish data, highlighting the adverse impact of the patent cliff on measured GDP and arguing that the underlying employment data tells a more positive story. See, in particular, this note by John Fitzgerald.”
–Earnings: Ed Yardeni says there shouldn’t be surprises in this earnings season. “Earnings season has just started. I’m not expecting that it will add to stock investors’ angst caused by Washington’s latest fiscal fiasco. For quite some time, earnings seasons have been marked by a very predictable and weird ritual as better-than-expected earnings for the latest quarter cause industry analysts to lower their expectations for the next quarter by about as much. That certainly happened during both the Q1 and Q2 earnings seasons.”
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